In the aftermath of a bloody coup, security assaults on civilians and mass arrests of political opponents, it's hard to look at Egypt without wondering whether the 2011 popular uprising has failed, Duke faculty said Thursday.
Jan. 25 marks the third anniversary of the Egyptian uprising, "a popular movement years in the making that toppled a dictator but didn't overthrow a regime," said Ellen McLarney, an assistant professor of Arabic literature and culture, and core faculty with the Duke Islamic Studies Center (DISC).
McLarney, Duke political scientist Abdeslam Maghraoui, and alumnus Matt Bradley, Cairo bureau reporter for The Wall Street Journal, spoke on "Egypt at the Crossroads" Thursday in a filled lecture hall in the John Hope Franklin Center.
While there was some excitement on the streets during last weeks referendum on the new constitution, panelists said the current mood among the progressive, secular Egyptian activists who led the uprising is somber. The leaders of the uprising remain on the political sidelines, if not in jail, while the current military government and supporters of deposed Muslim Brotherhood President Muhammad Morsi clash, both politically and in the streets.
The current government, now led by General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, is a "thug state," equally willing to use force against secularists, women and Copts as it is against the Muslim Brotherhood leadership it overthrew this past summer, McLarney said.
Speaking from Cairo via Skype, Bradley, who has been reporting from Egypt for five years, said the standard line in Egypt is that the opposition that overthrew President Mubarak in 2011 failed to take advantage "because the liberal class was incapable of getting elected. They had no organization and they were divided and fought among themselves. Even as secular progressives protested against the military, the Islamists won every election because they had superior organization and resources."
Maghraoui said the relationship between the military and Egyptian Islamists is a complicated one. The Summer 2013 military coup acted against Morsi and the Muslim Brothers but has closer ties to other Islamist groups. Military leader al-Sisi "tries to project himself as conservative and devout."
There are several paths Egypt is likely to take, but none offered much reason for progressive activists to be optimistic, Maghraoui said. He said it's “possible,” but unlikely Egypt would repeat the Algerian example of the 1990s when the military and Islamists waged a bloody civil war. (Hours after the panel, however, five Egyptians were killed in a series of bombings at security positions throughout Cairo.)
A more likely option is that Egypt follows Pakistan's example with civilians in nominal power but with the military behind the scenes controlling matters.
"I could imagine a coalition of the military and some Islamists working toward a greater Islamization of Egyptian society," Maghraoui said.
Meanwhile the US also remains on the sidelines, its influence waning both with liberal activists and with the generals whose military it financed for decades. Threats of withholding arm sales haven't reined in human rights abuses by the Egyptian military, and Saudi Arabia has pledged to step in and provide any gaps in support. But mostly the United States has few options because Egypt is too important to the region.
"Egypt is too big to fail," Bradley said. "The US government will not allow Egypt to fall into chaos, because it would endanger Israel."
The panel was sponsored by DISC's ISLAMiCommentary project, aimed at deepening understanding of Islam and Muslim communities. The talk was also included as part of an undergraduate course on the Arab Spring, co-taught by professors McLarney and Maghraoui.