With this weekend's announcements that Sens. Hillary Clinton and Sam Brownbeck and former Gov. Bill Richardson have taken major steps toward becoming presidential candidates for 2008, the upcoming election is already approaching one of the largest fields of contenders ever.
John Aldrich, a Duke University political science professor and co-author of the soon-to-be-released book "Change and Continuity in the 2004 and 2006 Elections," says one reason why so many hats are being tossed into the ring so early is this is a rare occasion when no incumbent president or vice president is running.
"If the president is up for re-nomination, his party will either have an entirely uncontested nomination (George W. Bush in 2004; Bill Clinton in 1996) or a very restricted field (Gerald Ford challenged by Ronald Reagan in 1976; Jimmy Carter challenged by Edward Kennedy and Jerry Brown in 1980)," Aldrich says. "When the incumbent vice president runs, he is the dominant figure, usually winning the nomination, often early in the contest (Al Gore in 2000; Bush the elder in 1988).
"As a result, fewer challenge such a strong contender. In all other cases, there will certainly be candidates seen as relatively strong, as Sens. Clinton and (John) McCain are seen for 2008, but they will not be seen as strong as an incumbent president or even vice president."
Aldrich, who specializes in American politics and behavior, says the last time both parties had open contests and a sitting vice president not interested in serving was 1920.
"Of course, one party always has an open contest, and they generally have eight to 10 serious contenders for their nomination," Aldrich says. "What is different this time is that that is true for two parties, so we have doubled our pleasure, doubled our fun.
"Second, if no one has a dominant role, then any major political figure could imagine political lightening striking them, as it did (George) McGovern in 1972, Carter in 1976, Clinton in 1992 and Bush in 2000. None of these was seen as dominating contenders for their party's nomination" and yet each went on to represent their party in the presidential election.
Aldrich says one reason why the 2008 presidential hopefuls have started their campaigns so early is "the need for money, volunteers and compliance with increasingly complex legal burdens to candidacy effectively requires beginning serious - -- and now public - -- campaigning by no later than summer of this year.
"And by exploring candidacy now, candidates can test the waters and, if they find that they have too little hope, they can withdraw within this year. That leaves elected politicians free to then run for election to some other office, with a much less demanding campaign calendar, while at least having given a shot at the big prize."