With Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon still in a coma and elections set in Israel, Sharon's Kadima party will succeed, even without its founder, because the centrist party understands that peace with the Palestinians will help the Israeli economy, says a Duke University professor.
"Sharon got his great new prestige from leaving Gaza and founding a center party; the party and the evacuation did not derive their popularity from him," said Bernard Avishai, a Duke professor of business and public policy. "Given Israel's globalizing economy, the logic of this party is much stronger than Sharon."
In the upcoming March 28 elections, acting prime minister Ehud Olmert, now head of Kadima, will run against left-leaning Amir Peretz of Labour and Binyamin Netanyahu of Likud on the right.
"All understand that growing the economy is crucial to relaxing explosive social tensions," said Avishai, who has written from Jerusalem on every Israeli election since 1973 for such publications as the New York Review and the New Yorker. "But Netanyahu believes peace is optional to grow the economy, and Olmert and Peretz know it's essential. Most Israelis now agree with Olmert and Peretz, though they trust Olmert more.
"Olmert is positioned to win in March because he is going to get more support from swing voters like Russian Jews and the educated Ashkenazi elite who are oriented towards the global economy," said Avishai, who is author of "The Tragedy of Zionism" and who is working on a new book on Israeli democracy. "Meanwhile, poorer Sephardim will vote against Netanyahu, who they identify with growing inequalities. It's like the 1992 American election -- 'It's the economy, stupid.'"