Death of Arafat Might Revive Peace Efforts

The death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat would open the way for new leadership that could help advance peace talks with Israel, but likely not before a dangerous and potentially violent period as factions struggle for power, said a Duke University expert on the Middle East.

"When there has been a long-term leader who has not groomed a successor and no political process exists for choosing a successor, power transitions often lead to unrest," said Bruce W. Jentleson, director of the Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy at Duke.

Arafat, who as of Friday morning was reported to be in a coma, undermined previous efforts to groom successors or even to put in place viable political institutions and processes, said Jentleson, a member of the 2004 Presidential Study Group of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a bipartisan panel that developed Middle East policy recommendations for the Bush administration.

"Hamas and Islamic Jihad will probably try to step up violence both as part of the Palestinian power struggle and to goad Israel into retaliating. It will be a very uncertain and very dangerous time until a new leader emerges and consolidates his position," Jentleson said. The unrest might cause Israel to postpone plans for an early 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, he added.

But the uncertainty also may present an opportunity. "We don't know that the new leaders will advance the peace process, but there is a better chance of that occurring than there was under Arafat, who walked away from many opportunities for peaceful resolution to the conflict."

As the struggle for Palestinian leadership goes forward, the United States will need to be deft in its diplomacy, said Jentleson, who served as a foreign policy adviser to former Vice President Al Gore and the Gore-Lieberman presidential campaign. "We need to do what we can to support leaders who will help build democracy for a Palestinian state and be committed to peace. But if the United States is too heavy handed, it could backfire."

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