News Tip: Tuesday's D.C. Primary Important for Howard Dean, Duke Professor Says
Dean "has to show that he can actually mobilize voters for a non-binding, essentially meaningless vote," says political science chair Michael Munger
DURHAM, N.C. -- Howard Dean, the Democratic presidential front-runner, has a crucial stake in Tuesday's presidential primary in Washington, D.C., said the chairman of Duke University's political science department.
"Dean has polled very strongly in D.C., but now he has to show that he can actually mobilize voters for a non-binding, essentially meaningless vote," said political scientist Michael Munger. "If he does well, it becomes very meaningful: Dean can 'get out' black voters, not just do well in passive polls of black citizens. The black vote is absolutely crucial for the Democrats, because the election is once again going to come down to Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
"All four of those states, with their crucial 87 total electoral votes, have significant black populations," Munger noted. "If Dean can deliver actual votes -- he has sometimes polled over 40 percent of the electorate in the four-candidate D.C. field -- this could be an important race."
On the other hand, "What matters is if he does 'worse than expected,' the pundit's designation for 'loser.'" Another issue is voter turnout. "If the turnout in D.C. is less than 30 percent or so, it raises questions about Dean's ability to mobilize voters," Munger said.
Munger's research interests include the study of ideology, legislative institutions, elections, and public policy, especially campaign finance. He has written or edited four books, including "Ideology and the Theory of Political Choice," "Analytical Politics" and "Analyzing Policy: Choices, Conflicts and Practices."
Billed as "the nation's first primary," Tuesday's D.C. ballot features only Democratic presidential candidates Dean, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun and Al Sharpton. The other major candidates asked that their names be kept off the ballot, pointing to a Democratic National Committee rule prohibiting straw polls before Iowa or New Hampshire.
"The D.C. primary is a slap in the face for the Democratic National Committee," Munger said. "But D.C. residents generally, and black D.C. residents in particular, seem to have decided that the DNC needs them more than they need it. The D.C. Democrats are threatening to shun the candidates who laid out of the non-binding primary when it comes time for the D.C. caucuses in February."
Munger can be reached for additional comment by email at munger@duke.edu, in his office at (919) 660-4301 or by cell phone at (919) 369-6453.