The Online Politician
Measuring how the Internet is reshaping U.S. politics
Duke University professor Paul Gronke and his students have been trying to gauge how the World Wide Web is reshaping the American political landscape. Some of the issues they've examined in their "Internet and Politics" class include:
- What makes individuals and communities participate in politics, and will the Internet make recruitment much easier?
- How do political parties and interest groups mobilize and recruit activists, and how does the web affect that?
- Will the web be a new source of political information, complementing or even supplanting the daily newspaper, weekly magazine and evening news show?
- And how do campaigners, who have to appeal to the public to join their campaigns, give money and get out to vote, use the web toward those ends?
"Some books tell us that the online world will simply be an extension of the offline world," said Gronke, an assistant political science professor. "We have these other really pie-in-the-sky, utopian visions of what's going to be happening with the web. And then some books provide dark, dystopian visions of an Internet-dominated world, one without communities, neighborhoods and social connections of any sort." The truth, Gronke and his students have determined, is something of a combination of all three. "I think the Internet, at this point, is a tool," Gronke said. "So in an event like the New Hampshire primary, the Internet provided an easy way for people to get quickly involved with John McCain's campaign. Just like the Internet was overwhelmed when the Starr Report on Clinton went online, it provided a way for people to very quickly gain access to something that they didn't want to wait for. "It's an easier, quicker, and cheaper way to feed the public's appetite, but I still think it's driven by events." But the Internet and its varied uses continue to evolve. In 1996, the Internet was still something of a novelty, Gronke said. Search engines were painfully slow, and a lot of people, including many politicians, weren't sure that anything could be gained from being online. By 1998, "penetration rates had gone up dramatically, so politicians knew they were able to reach a much larger audience," Gronke noted. "And it was clear that the people who were using the Internet at that point were a wealthier, more sophisticated audience. So, by 1998, I think the Internet was already seen as a forum to raise money, to recruit volunteers and to have some control over media relations. The media people were clearly looking at these web sites, so if you were able to put elaborations of your issue positions or other items on your web page, the media would go look there. It gave you, as a candidate, some additional control. "I think the big change in 2000 is that just like every company and interest group and retail store is trying to get online, candidates are also expected to be online. It's no longer just a new, neat thing to do. Now voters, interest groups and reporters actively seek out candidate web pages. The mass penetration rates have a lot to do with this. Politicians know that 40, 50, 60 percent of the population has some sort of access to the web, and they also know that people see the web as an important source of information. So a web site becomes an big part of the campaign, not just an afterthought, because politicians are going to take advantage of every forum they have." In the future, Gronke predicts, the Internet will play an increasingly larger role in political campaigns. "As far as the Internet as a mass medium, a place where people get the bulk of their news, and maybe even vote, I think that may happen in 2002, and more likely in 2004. We still need much greater rates of Internet penetration, and there are still a lot of technological issues that need to be resolved in the next couple of years. For example, are our TVs going to be plugged into cable anymore, are we going to get rid of phone lines and all be wireless? All those kinds of things are happening right now, and those should be shaken out in the next three to five years." The students in Gronke's class say other issues exist, including addressing security concerns and distinguishing between credible and sensational news sources. Ben Kennedy, a Duke senior from Baton Rouge, La., said the Internet represents a new source for political content, one not controlled by the same media outlets that have disseminated the news for years. Ideally, it will allow citizens to communicate more directly with their elected officials, "where money doesn't dictate who gets heard." Kennedy's classmates, however, think traditional news sources - such as major newspapers and TV networks - will continue to operate as reliable sources for news, even if that news is now accessed from web sites. "I use the web to get to credible sites, where I know the news is legitimate," said Emily Tang, a senior from San Diego. "We've grown up with the Internet, and we all realize that you can't trust everything you read," added Carrie Hayes, a senior who lives in Durham. The students believe that while online elections are a real possibility in the not-too-distant future, they're skeptical about whether this will prompt more people to vote. "I think it will just make everything more simple for those who are already active," said Kelly Booker, a senior from Alexandria, Va. "At best, it looks like it will be a long time before the Internet ... changes what people do versus how they do it," added Brian Stempel, a senior from Columbus, Ohio. Some of the students said people seem to be overly worried about how Internet voting may lead to voter fraud or other election-related problems. "Society is overly critical of Internet security issues," said Alcide Honore, a senior from Columbia, S.C., who believes that telephone sales and catalog purchases pose more of a security risk than Internet transactions. Stempel said he has found the newly offered class challenging. "The subject matter changes from week to week, day to day, as new strategies are being developed. It's really fascinating." "This class is cutting edge," added Adam Ganz, a senior from Atlanta. "It makes it tough to teach, but it also makes it more interesting for the students and the teacher."