Squishy Polls, Changing Demographics: Election Factors to Watch in NC

Duke political experts brief media on North Carolina's importance in upcoming election

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WILL GOP GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE MARK ROBINSON’S SLIDE AFFECT OTHER CANDIDATES IN NC?

“You might want to boldly predict a (Democratic candidate Josh) Stein victory over Mark Robinson, and perhaps a big one,” said Pope “Mac” McCorkle, a professor of the practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke. “The caution is that the polling for Roy Cooper in 2020 in his re-election bid, he was winning by double digits in most of the polls and only ended up winning by 5. So the Stein campaign is definitely on guard for not believing the polling.”

“There's been no ads for Mark Robinson in the last three weeks, even though he is the star of almost every Democratic ad. … (W)hether there's reverse coattails that hurts Trump, probably not significantly, but even a couple thousand votes can matter in North Carolina, where the real damage might be done is in the down ballot races.”

HOW CONCERNED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT CHALLENGES TO ELECTION RESULTS?

It's really extraordinary in some ways that we're even having this conversation right, almost four years since Jan. 6 and given everything that's transpired,” said Asher Hildebrand, a professor of the practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy. “Even though Congress has tightened the electoral count, and has kind of closed some of the pathways through which a president could challenge the results, there's still plenty of ground in the system we have for a losing candidate to cause trouble, and if enough trouble is caused at the margins, that could be decisive.”

HOW WILL CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS IN NC AFFECT THE ELECTION?

“You know, it could be the difference in the election in North Carolina this year,” said Kerry Haynie, dean of social sciences and a professor of political science and African & African American studies. “Let me start with going back to Georgia in the last election, 2020, and we saw President Biden won Georgia. North Carolina may be beginning to look like Georgia in terms of demographics, in terms of racial and ethnic demographics, but also the number of people moving into the state from the outside. There's been a change in the population quite a bit since the last four years … and that could be enough to make North Carolina trend from purplish to blue.”

“It's a purple state. It's been contested in the last couple of election cycles. I think it would be close in this state, but the demographic shift could be enough to give a slight advantage to Harris," said Haynie, who also directs Duke’s Center for the Study of Race, Ethnicity, and Gender in the Social Sciences.

Faculty Participants

Kerry Haynie
Kerry Haynie is dean of social sciences and a professor of political science and African & African American studies. He directs Duke’s Center for the Study of Race, Ethnicity, and Gender in the Social Sciences. Haynie researches race and ethnic politics, legislative processes, state and Southern politics and comparative urban politics.

Asher Hildebrand
Asher Hildebrand is a professor of the practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy. Hildebrand served for nearly 15 years in congressional offices and on campaigns, including President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign in North Carolina. He was formerly chief of staff to U.S. Representative David Price (D-NC).

Sunshine Hillygus
Sunshine Hillygus is a professor of political science and director of the Duke Initiative on Survey Methodology. She studies American political behavior -- including young voters, campaigns and elections, public opinion and information technology and politics.

Pope “Mac” McCorkle
Mac McCorkle is a professor of the practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke. McCorkle has been an issues consultant to political candidates, state governments and others for more than 25 years.

More experts on North Carolina politics are available here.