Leading Middle East Peace Negotiator Sees Reasons for Hope
Dennis Ross says American involvement is important to make negotiations a success

By Karen Kemp

"We are in a race against time, and we have to find a way to help Abu Mazen deliver," Ross said. Abbas, widely known as Abu Mazen, "has always been against violence," Ross noted.

The United States, which maintained a policy of disengagement during the last four years, should step up quickly to help ensure that negotiations have a chance to succeed, Ross told a crowd of about 200 people Feb. 17 at the Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy.

During the period of U.S. disengagement, violence increased, economic stresses worsened and hope for peace evaporated, Ross said. The election of Abbas, "who believes in a two-state solution as the salvation for Palestinians," has rekindled hope, Ross said.

Ross endorsed five strategies for advancing peace: secure the ceasefire; deliver economic improvements through high-profile projects that put Palestinians back to work; increase costs to those who threaten the ceasefire; secure endorsements of Abbas’ strategy of nonviolence from other Arab leaders; and help the two sides negotiate the difficult details of Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza. As the nation with the most influence over Israel, the United States must assume a key role, Ross said.

In his recent book, The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace, Ross provides a detailed review of a series of past peace talks, their participants and outcomes. The U.S. envoy to the Middle East from 1988 to 2000, Ross is credited with helping bring about the 1995 interim agreement between the Israelis and Palestinians, the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty and the 1997 Hebron Accord.

Ross is now the Ziegler distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Washington, D.C. He was co-convenor of the bipartisan 2004 Presidential Study Group, which released its recommendations for Middle East policy on Feb. 18.

Ross also addressed other Middle East concerns during his address, including the potential threat posed by the nuclear power build-up in Iran and insurgency forces in Iraq. For post-election Iraq, Ross advocated a federalist system that would permit regional autonomy for Kurds and Sunnis, a strategy that would allow some Sunni Muslims to get on board with the new Shiite-dominated government.

In Iran, where "enormous" oil and natural gas resources seem to make a civilian nuclear power program unnecessary, "It is pretty clear that it is not cost effective, but they are determined to have it anyway," Ross said. Although Iran denies existence of a weapons program, the United States and others believe nuclear weapons are the real intent.

"If Iran goes nuclear, the Middle East will look very different as a result," Ross said. He expressed hope that the United States would join talks being conducted with Iran by Britain, France and Germany. If the United States gets involved, he said the threat of international isolation and trade sanctions might dissuade Iran from its current course.

"I wouldn’t take the military option off the table," Ross added. But military strikes against supposed weapon targets pose numerous challenges. For example, even if Western states could locate and destroy suspected nuclear weapon facilities, Iran now has the technical and engineering capability to rebuild capacity in a few short years, Ross said.

Michal Harris, a third-year law student who attended the lecture, said she found Ross’ lack of bias "a breath of fresh air" in a dialogue that is so often divisive. "He is able to speak about the issues in a logical way," Harris said. "There were divergent views in the audience and he diffused any sort of negative attitudes that might have come out. He has a lot of ideas, and he’s hopeful. That’s what the region needs."

The lecture was co-sponsored by the Sanford Institute, the Center for Jewish Studies, the Department of Political Science, the Division of Student Affairs, Duke Center for International Studies, Freeman Center for Jewish Life, Office of the Provost and the Office of Public Affairs and Government Relations.

For more information, contact: Karen Kemp | phone: (919) 613-7394 | email: karen.kemp.duke.edu