Khalil Shikaki speaks at the Sanford Institute. Photo: Les Todd

Palestinian Pollster Sees New Hope, Daunting Obstacles
Palestinians more optimistic about peace, but situation could worsen if negotiations fail

By Karen Kemp

"This is my pessimistic assessment," Shikaki said in a March 1 talk at the Sanford Institute of Public Policy. "This is reality; this is the Middle East."

Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, has conducted more than 100 polls among Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip since 1993, most recently in December 2004, shortly after Arafat’s death.

With Arafat’s death and the violence-free, democratic election of a new president, Mahmoud Abbas, polls showed unprecedented hope for the future, he said. Measures of optimism are important because "people who are hopeful, who think life has a meaning, tend to support peace and be willing to compromise," Shikaki said.

Five years ago, half the Palestinians polled said reconciliation with Israel would never be possible. In December 2004, for the first time ever, a majority of Palestinians said they would accept basic compromises, while 80 percent wanted a mutual cessation of violence.

On the negative side, Palestinians see Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza as a victory for violence and believe that if negotiations fail, they can "rely on the efficacy of violence," Shikaki said. With the Israeli occupation restricting their movement and access to jobs, Palestinians have seen their economic well-being plummet, he said. About 60 percent live below the poverty level of $2 per day, and 40 percent are unemployed.

In addition, nearly 90 percent of Palestinians believe the leaders of the Palestinian National Authority are corrupt. "This stands out as a major difficulty," Shikaki said.

Although Abbas has popular support, Palestinians believe his success in advancing negotiations with Israel depends on Israeli’s actions. Shikaki said Israel is not likely to open Palestinian borders, a step he said is necessary to allow economic recovery. He warned that Abbas could lose popular support if he is seen as ineffective in negotiating a change in Israeli policy.

If Abbas cannot make progress on negotiations and convince Palestinians that he is addressing corruption among the leadership, Hamas will emerge as the winner in local and parliamentary elections slated for the coming months, Shikaki said.

The lecture was arranged by Bernard Avishai, visiting professor of public policy studies and business, and was co-sponsored by the Sanford Institute and the Carolina Center for the Study of the Middle East and Muslim Civilizations at UNC-Chapel Hill.

For more information, contact: Karen Kemp | phone: (919) 613-7394 | email: Karen.kemp.duke.edu