News Tip: Edwards May Not Help Democrats Win South, But Could Swing Election

DURHAM, N.C. -- Sen. John Edwards makes three contributions to the Democratic ticket as Sen. John Kerry's running mate: his Southern identity, his youth and charisma, and his message, says Duke University political science professor Michael Munger.

Edwards' Southernness will have a complicated effect, said Munger, chair of Duke's political science department.

"It is quite possible that Edwards will not bring the ticket any Southern states at all, not even North Carolina," he said. "The difference is that Bush will now have to contest Southern states, spending time and money to defend his advantage there. This could easily shift the balance in the big Midwestern states.

"The bottom line is that Edwards being Southern may not win Southern states," Munger said. "But the Democrats may well win the election precisely because Edwards is Southern."

Munger has written or edited four books, including "Ideology and the Theory of Political Choice" (University of Michigan Press, 1994) and "Analytical Politics" (Cambridge University Press, 1997). His most recent book, "Analyzing Policy: Choices, Conflicts and Practices," was published in August 2000 by W.W. Norton.

Edwards' message, based on his "Two Americas" speech during the Democratic primaries combining optimism and core Democratic values, will play very well in the Midwestern battleground states, particularly Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Munger said.

"The economic malaise of the newly unemployed in the Rust Belt states will make voters very receptive to this message," he added.

Edwards' youth and charisma will further appeal to young people, who are already more involved in this election than in past elections, Munger said. The attention given to the war in Iraq, a possible draft and the Michael Moore documentary "Fahrenheit 9/11" are driving that interest.

"If young voters turn out heavily, it will benefit the Democrats tremendously," he said.