News Tip: Saddam's Capture Not Likely to End Resistance in Iraq, Duke Professor Says

The capture or death of Saddam Hussein would aid American troops in Iraq by laying to rest all questions about his eventual return to power, but it would not likely end all resistance to U.S. forces, said a Duke University political scientist.

"There are multiple motives at play in the events of the past eight weeks," said Ole Holsti, the George V. Allen Professor of Political Science at Duke. "For example, we cannot wholly discount the possibility that these attacks may be linked to conflicts between competing groups that hope to dominate Iraq in the future; for example, conflict between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. Or they may simply be linked to various criminal motives."

Holsti, who specializes in international politics and foreign policy decision-making, said the best possible outcome would be to capture Saddam Hussein and put him on trial before a court of Iraqi jurists, with ample television coverage of the proceedings.

"In this instance, the U.S. authorities should, at most, play a very minor role. After all, the Iraqi people -- notably Shiites and Kurds -- were the primary victims of Saddam's brutality," he said.

If Saddam were killed and his body badly mutilated, Holsti said, "we can expect rumors of his survival to last a long time. We have already seen this in the deaths of his two sons."

Holsti can be reached for additional comment at (919) 660-4348 (office), (919) 942-4232 (home) or holsti@acpub.duke.edu.