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Foreign Policy in a Post-Bin Laden World

Sanford panel discusses implications of Bin Laden's death

The future of al Qaeda, U.S. relations with Pakistan, the conflict in
Afghanistan and other issues arising from the death of Osama bin Laden
were addressed during a panel discussion Wednesday at Duke's Sanford
School of Public Policy. 

A trio of Sanford professors with security and foreign policy expertise
addressed "Now What? Counterterrorism and American National Security in
a Post-Bin Laden World."

Moderated by Seth Cantey, a political science graduate student, the panel included Peter Feaver, professor of political science and public policy, Bruce Jentleson, professor of public policy and political science, and David Schanzer, associate professor of the practice of public policy. 

David Schanzer, who is also director of the Triangle Center on
Terrorism and Homeland Security, highlighted the failures of al Qaeda
and its ideology.

"Ironically, 9/11, while a tactical success, was a strategic disaster,"  he said. Bin Laden thought it would cause the US to leave the Middle
East, which did not happen. It also resulted in the loss of al Qaeda's
safe haven in Afghanistan. The al Qaeda attack in Saudi Arabia led to
aggressive action in the kingdom, which shut down funding sources and
limited the export of the Al-Qaeda ideology. Also, the al Qaeda "brand"
has degraded over the past 10 years, Schanzer said.

"The Al-Qaeda ideology was flawed from the beginning," Schanzer said.
It was about death and a rejection of the modern world. In 2007, the
Jihadi clerics abandoned al Qaeda. This year's Arab Spring uprisings
offered young people another path to change. The site of bin Laden's
death also hurt his appeal, since it was clear that while asking
followers to martyr themselves for the cause, bin Laden himself lived
comfortably in hiding. Schanzer doesn't expect large attacks to follow,
but for groups affiliated with al Qaeda to begin focusing on their
domestic concerns.

Jentleson, who served as a special adviser in the U.S. State Department
from 2009 to early 2011, recalled the fear, shock and uncertainty on
9/11. Despite the weakened status of al Qaeda, bin Laden's death has
powerful symbolic meaning, and not only for Americans, he said.

The death of America's enemy number one has "a Wizard of Oz effect,
when the curtain is pulled back, to reveal an ordinary man," he said.
 The recent Arab Spring uprisings provide a different narrative for
change, which is not necessarily anti-American.  

Jentleson said the United States will need to figure out how to deal
with the different forms of political Islam, which is here to stay.
Issues that have gotten little attention since 9/11, such as the end of
the Cold War and the financial crisis, still need to be addressed.  

The spike in President Obama's popularity is "a weather report, not
climate change," said Jentleson.  To use the strike force rather than
bombs was a risky call for Obama, but it should "take off the table the
notion that this president doesn't understand how to use force," he
said. "It's a turning point for him as Commander in Chief."

Feaver, who served as a special adviser on the staff of the National
Security Council during the Bush Administration, agreed.  The raid also
signals a significant reshuffling of the national security team, he
said, noting that CIA director Leon Panetta led the operation.

"Gates was overruled on Libya and also on this operation. The era of Gates is over," Feaver said.

The raid offers a fleeting moment of bipartisanship for Obama, however
much he would like to extend it. But it will be followed by "a hardening
of the underlying debates in national security and foreign policy."  For example some will see this as a chance to declare victory in
Afghanistan and go home, while others will press harder to stay, Feaver
said.   

On the question of the U.S. taking action without the knowledge of the
Pakistani government, Feaver noted that Obama campaigned saying he would
take such action, so it's no surprise that he did so. It is hugely
controversial in Pakistan, and has made Europe nervous, however.
Jentleson argued that the situation is unique enough that the unilateral
action could be interpreted as a very limited precedent.