If Dutch voters on Wednesday follow the lead of French voters and reject a constitution for the European Union, the measure will almost certainly die and short-term economic uncertainty could follow, says a DukeUniversity political scientist.
"It primarily means confusion and uncertainty," said Tim Buthe, an expert on European integration who has been studying EU public opinion for more than 10 years. "European leaders never drew up a 'Plan B' since no one really expected the constitution to not be ratified. The downturn in financial markets that has followed the French referendum is one indication of this uncertainty."
The United States also stands to lose if the EU operates under old arrangements, Buthe said. The EU has grown from 15 to 25 member states since 2004 and the constitution was supposed to make decision-making more efficient. Without those changes, Buthe said, the EU will be a less effective partner for the U.S. in world politics, and it might be more difficult to reach compromises on conflicts of interest between the U.S. and EU, such as the current dispute over public subsidies to Boeing and Airbus.
"The EU and its member states remain a key -- arguably the most important -- trade partner, source of investment, target for U.S. investments and partner of the U.S. in international politics," said Buthe, an assistant professor of political science at Duke. "An economic downturn in Europe due to political uncertainty would surely be detrimental to the U.S. economy.
"But most importantly, while the U.S. and EU may disagree on some foreign policy issues, such as Iraq and the international criminal court, the EU's ability to be an effective actor in international politics is crucial for achieving common objectives more efficiently, from peace in the Middle East to nuclear proliferation to maintaining and extending international institutions for trade and investment.
"Currently, establishing cooperation on such issues requires talking to 25 governments separately; the constitutional treaty would have established a single EU foreign minister and made U.S.-EU cooperation easier."
Buthe said he believes the "no" vote in France and a potential "no" vote in the Netherlands is partly the result of the EU being blamed - “ sometimes unfairly -- for unpopular political decisions. He said a cooling-off period may be needed before future attempts are made to ratify a constitution. "The EU has taken in 13 new member states in the last 11 years, and it has changed its institutions three times. There might be some degree of fatigue."