Young Voters Are the "Wild Card" in the 2004 Presidential Race

The new generation of voters could decide the next presidential election, but it's unclear which way these voters might lean, says a Duke University public policy lecturer.

"This group is the wild card," says Alma Blount, director of the Hart Leadership Program at Duke's Terry Sanford Institute for Public Policy. "Right now they are registering to vote in record numbers. Will they show up at the polls? Will they split evenly down the middle for the Republicans and Democrats as they did in 2000, or is the momentum more toward one side?"

Blount, who teaches an undergraduate class this fall titled "Civic Participation/Community Leadership," cautions that it's not a given that young people will necessarily lean toward the left.

"We tend to think that young people are a bit more liberal, iconoclastic, more prone to buck authority, but many analysts think that this generation is more conservative than the last."

The other difficult factor in teasing out how college-aged youth will vote is that "the majority of young people don't identify themselves as members of either party -- they identify themselves as independents," says Blount. "And according to a CNN/Gallup poll, slightly more students who do align with a political party do so with the Republicans."

Blount says the emerging young conservative movement provides a fascinating glimpse into how this generation is transforming political participation among its peers.

"College conservatives are well-financed and well organized. It's a different manifestation of conservatism than the tweed-wearing, pipe-smoking, preppy William Buckley-type of college conservative. Today's young Republicans greatly admire Ronald Reagan and support gun owner rights, but they may be more tolerant of such social issues as civil unions. You can't tag them easily because they don't fit the older mold."

When Blount polled her "Civic Participation/Community Leadership" students about their top concerns heading into the election, their responses were similar to those voiced by young people across the country: jobs, access to affordable health care, the war in Iraq, affordable education and safety from terrorism.

"I find it interesting that young people from an elite institution don't take for granted that they will get a good job. Across the board, it's a mix of concerns that combines the direction of our foreign policy with the nitty-gritty of their own personal future." 

Blount says that while many young people say they feel alienated or disengaged from politics, they are not apathetic. It is her observation that young people are hungry to learn how they can become more involved in the political process.

"If we give young people a sense of how ordinary citizens can build power and get their voices heard in larger and larger arenas," she says, "I know from first-hand experience that students get excited about becoming active members of their communities."

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Through the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, the Hart Leadership Program is participating in the Political Engagement Project, a three-year initiative to identify ways to get young people more involved in the political process. More information is available here.

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