Debates Will Change Candidates' Strategies

With John Kerry trailing George W. Bush in the polls, it might seem like the presidential race is over. Not so, says a Duke University political scientist.

"It is far too early to think this election is over," said Jerry Hough, James B. Duke Professor of Political Science.

"John Kennedy trailed Richard Nixon by 6 points after the Republican Convention. Ronald Reagan was behind Jimmy Carter in September, and poll results in 2000 were very volatile. The fact that the swing voters are now well-educated means the campaign will change when the debates start on Sept. 30 and provide a mass audience. It will become much more future-oriented."

Hough teaches two courses on the American presidency and has completed a book, "The End of the North-South Conflict: The Electoral College and Party Realignments."

Hough expects that, during the debates, Kerry will remind voters that both North Korea and Iran clearly have nuclear programs and pose a greater danger than Iraq. Kerry will ask if Bush's pre-emptive doctrine means he will go to war against these countries if re-elected. Kerry also will pledge diplomatic action and argue that the son of a diplomat will be more successful than a president who has antagonized allies.

Unless Kerry wins decisively on foreign policy in the debates, however, the key determinant in the election could be the stock market, Hough said.

"Instead of having a summer rally, the stock market has remained in a narrow range for nine months," Hough said. "If it goes up, Kerry will have difficulty with his economic issue and will have to focus on foreign policy. But if the stock market goes down, Kerry will describe it as a reaction to the president's economic policy, and the president will find it difficult to respond."

The key to a Kerry election, Hough said, is the suburbs, where Democrats had until recently made great inroads. "President Bush has tried to win the suburbs back by giving them a large tax cut. Kerry has to fight to win the suburbs back. The suburbanites are not interested in industrial jobs and average wages, but in the stock market. He will emphasize the impact of deficits on interest rates and therefore on the market."

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