While intensely concerned with his own re-election bid in 2004, President Bush has alienated world leaders in his efforts to win support for a U.S.-led strike on Iraq by ignoring his allies' own political needs, says Duke University professor Ole R. Holsti.

In Turkey and European Union (EU) countries, the overwhelming majority of citizens oppose the prospect of war, says Holsti, George V. Allen Professor of Political Science. Additionally, EU countries as well as Brazil, Russia and South Korea have been hurt by some U.S. tariffs, such as steel tariffs that have helped Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia and soft lumber tariffs that have helped other states, Holsti says.

Turkey, an EU candidate, "turned down U.S. troops in their country last weekend, but it continues to be under intense pressure from the U.S., even though 90 percent of Turks oppose any war with Iraq and for very good reasons, as the Kurdish problem has been a source of great difficulties for the Ankara Government," he says. "U.S. pressures may well prevail if another vote takes place, but we could also see the unraveling of the government in a key country and long-time ally."

Holsti is an expert on international politics and foreign policy decision-making and has written numerous books on the subject, including "Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy" and "Crisis, Escalation, War."

"The Bush administration is unwilling to make any concessions to the domestic political needs of other leaders, while expecting those leaders to risk their political futures for a war that their populations oppose," he said. "This is surely a recipe for alienating those whose help we will need, not only in rebuilding Iraq after Saddam, but also in fighting against terrorists and in virtually all other important international issues."

Holsti can be reached for additional comment at (919) 660-4348. His email address is holsti@duke.edu.