When U.S. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell appears before the United Nations Wednesday to present evidence that Iraq has worked to conceal illegal arms from international inspectors, it is unlikely he will change world opinion about the need for war in Iraq, says a Duke University political scientist.

"It is unfair to ask that Powell's speech today convince world public opinion about the need for war in Iraq," says Peter Feaver, an associate professor of political science at Duke. "The critics are by this point largely impervious to evidence or argument."

Feaver says U.S. critics will argue that if UN inspectors are not finding evidence of weapons of mass destruction, that is evidence Iraq does not have such weapons. Conversely, if inspectors are finding evidence of weapons of mass destruction, critics will say the inspections are working and war is unnecessary.

"Because Iraq has such a long and unbroken history of defiance of UN resolutions, so much of the evidence is already known. The war critics will just respond to Powell's speech with a bored 'There is nothing new here, we have heard it all before.' Because they are willing to ignore Iraq's denial and deception, no amount of evidence of denial and deception will convince them."

Feaver, the director of the Triangle Institute of Security Studies, says there is an historical parallel -- the Cuban missile crisis. "Let's remember that the Adlai Stevenson moment of 1962 was not an Adlai Stevenson moment. The photos did not persuade people that the Soviets had been lying. It was not until the Soviets admitted that they had lied that world opinion shifted."

Feaver can be reached for additional comment at (919) 660-4331 or pfeaver@duke.edu.